EDITOR: The war is coming!
The preparation for the ‘inevitable’ war against Iran are almost completed, with the public in the west totally hoodwinked. This will be another new-Imperial war of the west, without reason, evidence or logic. It will also not be voted upon by Parliaments – it will just happen, like the war in Iraq. Have they not learnt anything? They sure have… They learnt that they can get away with mass-murder, with lying to the whole world, with killing hundreds of thousands – basically, the public in the west is lacking both minimal political understanding or moral fiber. They can do what they wish, and we will just pay for it. But the real people who pay, with their life, are the People of the Middle East. In the meantime, it is good business for arms dealers and merchants of death.
Gulf states brace for unwanted US-Iran war: Al Jazeera English
Amid growing expectations of a western attack on Iran, the Arab Gulf states fear to bear the economic and political cost of the conflict for being miles away from the Islamic Republic
AFP , Friday 6 Jan 2012
The Arab states that lie just miles across the Gulf from Iran are nervously eyeing the prospects of a war between Tehran and the West that none of them want and all know could devastate their economies.
This very real fear is prompting the oil-rich states to enhance their defences while hoping that diplomacy can rein in Tehran’s regional ambitions and put an end to its worrying nuclear programme.
“No one in the Gulf States wants war but everyone is preparing for the possibility that it might happen,” said military analyst Riad Kahwaji.
Tension has escalated as the West continues to squeeze Tehran over its nuclear programme, with the EU threatening a total ban on Iranian oil imports.
Iran has threatened to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz — which links the Gulf to the Arabian Sea and through which 20 percent of the world’s sea-transported oil flows — if its petroleum sales are blocked.
The United States, whose navy’s Fifth Fleet is based in the Gulf state of Bahrain and which has a military presence in a number of other countries — has told Tehran bluntly that it will not tolerate any such move.
These staunch Washington allies would be sucked into war with Iran if Tehran targets them, said Kahwaji, who runs the Dubai-based Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis (Inegma).
“The clock is ticking, and we in the Gulf do not have control over it,” said Kuwaiti political analyst Sami al-Faraj in reference to a potential American or Israeli strike against Iran.
Many times in the past, Iran has warned that it would attack US military facilities in the Gulf Arab states in the event of war.
In addition to the Fifth Fleet, Qatar hosts the US Central Command, there are around 23,000 US troops based in Kuwait and some 2,000 US military personnel in the United Arab Emirates.
The “Mashreq” website, which is close to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, has said targets in the Gulf have already been selected, according to the pan-Arab daily Al-Hayat.
Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem Al-Thani, whose country has tried in the past to bridge the gap between Tehran and Gulf nations, said the latter should contribute to resolving the crisis.
“I think all of us have an interest in not having any conflicts in the Gulf,” he said recently, saying the Gulf states are “obviously worried” by the rising US-Iranian tension.
“We have experienced military conflicts and we all know that there is no winner in such conflicts, especially for the countries around the Gulf,” he said.
In addition to external threats, Gulf states have to deal with the threat of so-called sleeper cells that Iran is suspected of deploying across the region.
“We hear of preventive measures in many countries in dealing with sleeper cells belonging to Iran,” Kahwaji said.
The desire to avoid war is accompanied by a wish to curb Iran’s increasing regional influence.
“There are two schools now in the Gulf,” said Faraj.
“One completely rejects resorting to war unless imposed.
“The second sees the need to counter Iranian interference in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, and Sudan, and its fanning of sectarian tension (in the Gulf), though not necessarily through armed conflict.”
The second school “has become stronger” recently, he added.
Faraj told AFP: “It is the Gulf countries that will suffer the most because we are within the range of Iranian rockets,” noting, along with Kahwaji that they have strategic oil installations and financial and business centres on their coasts, in close range from Iran’s shores.
Saudi Arabia’s major oil terminal of Ras Tanura, for instance, is only some 180 kilometres (111 miles) away from Iran’s shores. Abu Dhabi, another major Arab oil producer is only 220 kilometres (136 miles) away.
As they wait, Gulf States are stepping up their defence purchases.
Last month, Saudi Arabia signed a deal worth $29.4 billion to buy 84 US F-15 fighter jets, and upgrade 70 other jets.
Shortly afterwards, a $3.48 billion UAE armament deal came to light, including the advanced anti-missile Terminal High Altitude Area Defense System (Thaad).
Earlier in 2011, the United States and Saudi Arabia announced a $1.7 billion deal to strengthen Patriot missile batteries, while Kuwait bought 209 missiles for $900 million.
Arab League asks Hamas to help halt Syria violence: Haaretz
Arab League Secretary General Nabil Elaraby says Hamas must work with ‘integrity, transparency and credibility’ to bring end to violence, during meeting with Hamas head Khaled Meshaal in Cairo.
The head of the Arab League said on Friday he had asked the Damascus-based leader of the Palestinian movement Hamas to ask the Syrian government to work to halt violence in the country.
Arab League Secretary General Nabil Elaraby was speaking alongside Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal after a meeting in Cairo.
“I gave him a message today to the Syrian authorities that it is necessary to work with integrity, transparency and credibility to halt the violence that is happening in Syria,” he said.
The report comes hours after an explosion by terrorists targeted the central Maidan district of Damascus on Friday, Syrian state television said. According to the station, the attack targeted a police bus in central Damascus, causing several deaths.
Initial reports claim a suicide bomber detonated himself in the city’s al-Midian quarter near the Syrian intelligence headquarters, with Syria’s official news agency SANA reoprting that 15 people were killed in the attack and another 46 wounded.
The report came only two weeks after two booby-trapped cars blew up at Syrian security sites in Damascus, with 44 killed and dozens wounded.
Is Israel witnessing the rise of a kinder, gentler Hamas?: Haaretz
Hamas’ declaration of a cessation of terror activities against Israel seems serious. Does this mean a strategic change on the part of the organization? Not necessarily.
By Avi Issacharoff
Despite the severe drubbing Hamas took in Operation Cast Lead three years ago, the Gaza-based organization remains Israel’s bitter foe. In many senses – particularly its military potential – Hamas is even more dangerous now than it was then. But there is little resemblance between Hamas of 2008, with its almost-nonstop rocket fire on Israel, and the Islamist group now, which is not only not firing missiles but is arresting militants from other factions who try to do so.
Additional proof of Hamas’ dramatic transformation in recent years, particularly since the advent of the so-called Arab Spring, came from the head of the organization’s political bureau Khaled Meshal a few days ago. Hamas will henceforth focus on a popular struggle in the form of mass demonstrations and the like, he said. Hamas and Fatah have agreed on a joint mode of activity as well as on the establishment of a Palestinian state within the 1967 borders, with Jerusalem as its capital, he said.
Meshal made these remarks following another round of talks in Cairo with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and the Fatah leadership on the two groups’ brewing reconciliation. Unusually, Meshal made no attempt to hide those understandings; he explained them in several interviews with leading Palestinian and Arab media outlets. His message was aimed at Hamas activists, Fatah and the Israeli government.
For senior officials in the Palestinian Authority, this did not come as a great surprise. A month ago, after the conclusion of a first round of talks, Abbas and Meshal agreed on a transition to “popular resistance” and on a cease-fire with Israel in the West Bank and Gaza. Haaretz learned this week that in the wake of that meeting, Meshal ordered the military wing of Hamas, Iz al-Din al-Qassam, to desist from armed activity against Israel. Among those surprised by this announcement, issued in Cairo on December 23, were senior Hamas personnel in the Gaza Strip. They were taken aback by the departure from the official Hamas line, which until then held that the jihad and armed operations against Israel would continue indefinitely (other than in periods of hudna, cease-fire ).
The announcement of the new mode of struggle sparked a series of angry reactions by senior figures in Hamas’ political wing in Gaza; they, who had been considered more pragmatic, perhaps even moderate in their approach, endorsed a much tougher approach than Meshal’s. However, this was not a case of a conservative ideology flying in the face of the new line articulated by Meshal: What really irked the Gaza officials, including Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh, Interior Minister Fathi Hamad, Hamas leader Mahmoud al-Zahar and others, was that they were not consulted before the announcement of the new policy was made.
This also explains Egypt’s invitation to Haniyeh to visit Cairo, where he hasn’t set foot for five years (because the Egyptians forbade it ). Egyptian intelligence, which initiated the intra-Palestinian reconciliation and is close to achieving that goal, wants to avoid last-minute obstacles and surprises.
The new-old power struggles in the top ranks of Hamas between those who are “inside” and those who are “outside” Palestine signify the second, dramatic metamorphosis the organization has undergone in the past few months. The Hamas leadership abroad – those who are described as being ensconced in Damascus and Tehran – has lost some of its status (and also some of its assets ) in the wake of the palpable crisis it finds itself in vis-a-vis the Syrian and Iranian regimes. Politically, Meshal, his deputy Mousa Abu Marzook, senior official Izzat Rishak and their colleagues have been weakened, as compared to the weight of the Gaza group. The “outside” leaders are currently trying to find new premises to rent across the Arab world, after the organization decided to leave Syria (which in turn led to a decision by Iran to cut its aid to Hamas ); within just a few weeks, they lost their political, military and financial mainstays.
Still, Meshal remains the organization’s “big boss.” He did not hesitate this week to emphasize that the decision to switch to popular resistance was approved by all the senior officials of the organization, not by him alone. For those seeking clarifications of Haniyeh’s reactions, Meshal’s close aides have explained that the prime minister is above all apprehensive about losing his position. Haniyeh’s anger probably intensified when he learned that for now, at least, Hamas does not intend to run a candidate in the Palestinian presidential elections next May.
The historical decision to modify the character of the Palestinian struggle – alongside Hamas’ agreement to join the Palestine Liberation Organization (and in large measure to accept the written agreements with Israel ) – does not necessarily attest to a strategic shift in terms of goals. It’s possible that Meshal and his aides realize that for now they need to forgo terrorist attacks in favor of new and more effective ways of achieving their goals: Indeed, Meshal and his colleagues admit that they have not completely abandoned the armed struggle and that they reserve the right to resist the Israeli occupation “using all means.” Meshal also emphasized that Hamas does not intend to disarm or to stop the organization’s huge arms buildup in Gaza.
Jibril Rajoub, one of the Fatah leaders who took part in the Cairo talks with Hamas, told Haaretz that he sees the new developments in Hamas as a strategic change. “I am convinced that Hamas is adopting a very pragmatic line and has agreed to a hudna in the West Bank and Gaza. Your prime minister, Netanyahu, needs to recognize the facts on the ground, and to reconsider his position regarding Palestinian unity, which will be a boon to all sides.”
One of the leaders of Hamas in Gaza, Ramzi Hammad, told Haaretz yesterday that the change in the organizations’ views is part and parcel of the effort to attain national unity with Fatah. He sidestepped the question if the change is a matter of strategy or of tactics, and said: “We have to decide together on the best way to end the Israeli occupation, and the PA thinks, as we do, that the diplomatic efforts vis-a-vis the Israeli government lead nowhere. The resistance will continue, but the timetable and means remain to be seen.”
Effects of ‘Islamic Winter’
At almost every opportunity, Hamas’ senior officials boast that the “Islamic Winter” we are currently witnessing really began with the organization’s sweeping victory in the elections to the Palestinian parliament in January 2006. In their view, this was the first significant achievement for political Islam in the Arab world, and it was followed by the victories of the Islamic Ennahda party in Tunisia, Justice and Development in Morocco and, of course, by the dramatic inroads made by Hamas’ umbrella organization, the Muslim Brotherhood, in Egypt.
However, Hamas policy did not change one iota after January 2006. The after-effects of the Arab Spring and the Islamic Winter that followed it have played the most significant role in the organization’s policy shift at this time. First, the move away from longtime patron Syria and toward the new Egypt has pushed Hamas to adopt a more pragmatic line. Second, the search for an Arab state that will agree to accommodate the Hamas leadership instead of Damascus also played a significant role in inducing them to become more flexible. Third, the huge wave of protest sweeping the Middle East has made it clear to Hamas that it cannot continue to rely solely on its bayonets to maintain control over Gaza – particularly in view of the fact that its situation has deteriorated in terms of public opinion. With the economic distress in the Strip worsening, not even completion of the deal for the return of hundreds of its prisoners from Israel in return for the release of Gilad Shalit can guarantee immunity from another revolution.
Indeed, Hamas’ financial situation in recent months has become increasingly dire: Tehran has slashed cash payments to Gaza, and revenues from smuggling activity via the Strip’s tunnels have fallen off, due to the lifting of the Israeli siege of Gaza. The changed economic situation compelled Hamas to take a number of drastic steps, such as firing several hundred members of the organization’s security apparatus in Gaza. (The official Hamas version states that 150 members of the security forces were dismissed on account of “moral problems.” ) In addition, Hamas forces seized control of several bank branches (of the Palestine Bank and the Palestinian Islamic Bank ) in Gaza and “withdrew” money from them by force. The third step being taken to keep the Hamas coffers full is to raise taxes.
Hamas’ ostensibly “clean” image is also not what it used to be: More and more senior figures in the movement have become entangled in corruption scandals, though these are rarely reported in the media. The most prominent person involved is Ayman Taha, one of the leaders of Hamas in the Strip, who was exiled to Cairo because of his involvement in one scandal, and continues to operate from there.
Of late, a few less-senior figures in Hamas – some of whom were suspected of corruption, and others of whom tried to report such affairs – have undergone peculiar accidents. For example, Ahmed al-Mamluk was killed two weeks ago, according to Hamas, “while carrying out a jihad mission.” His family says he was supposed to be meeting with a senior Hamas official to discuss a number of corruption cases. A similar “accident” befell Ali Nayef al-Haj, who was killed in an “internal explosion” in November; Mohammed Zaki al-Hams, who died in a road accident in early November; Mohammed al-Mahamoum, who died last June from electrocution in a Hamas outpost; and Ashraf Faraj Abu Hana, who drowned in a swimming pool last March. Hamas says this is a chance series of accidents, but the families have radically different versions.
Another challenge faced by Hamas in recent months is the activity of Islamic Jihad. The fact that Hamas has been observing a cease-fire on the Israeli front has sparked considerable domestic criticism in Gaza, and many activists have recently left and joined Islamic Jihad. Amazingly, Jihad is able to spot the “rebels” and recruit them even from Hamas-controlled mosques. It seems safe to say that Hamas’ new policy will only heighten such challenges and further weaken its ability to exercise full control over events in Gaza.
Displays of unity
Various people who met with Meshal during his latest visit to Cairo are convinced that he wants reconciliation with Abbas and Fatah. The same holds for the organization’s other top figures. Visitors in the City Stars InterContinental Hotel in Cairo during the recent meetings reported seeing unusual displays of unity there: senior Fatah and Hamas officials (mainly from the outside leadership ) sitting together, smoking a nargilleh, laughing, drinking and eating. Plenty of jokes were told about the Gazans, about the residents of Hebron and about Israel, of course. Meshal sounded enthusiastic about the Tunisian model of Ennahda – the party that won the parliamentary elections, but is looking to link up with secular parties. Ennahda has declared that it does not intend to impose sharia law in the country or to fight against women wearing bikinis on the beach. Meshal and his colleagues already know that in Palestinian society, which is considered more religious than that of Tunisia, no bikini-like problems are likely to arise.
On the other side, Mahmoud Abbas also appears more determined than ever to achieve reconciliation immediately after January 26, which will be exactly three months after the Quartet put forward its proposal for the renewal of Palestinian-Israeli talks (in which the sides were asked to refrain from taking unilateral steps – including establishment of a unity government with Hamas ). Abbas insists that he will not run in the May elections. Without him, Fatah’s chances look dim, according to the latest poll conducted by Khalil Shikaki’s Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research. However, Hamas’ decision not to field a candidate for the presidency (which may change by May ) might spare Fatah a defeat.
Shikaki’s survey, conducted jointly with the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, showed growing support among Israelis (58 percent ) and Palestinians (50 percent ) for a two-state solution that more or less follows the contours of the Geneva Initiative. At the same time, according to the poll, most Israelis (53 percent ) and Palestinians (61 percent ) think there is no majority on the other side that would support an agreement along those lines.
For his part, Abbas understands that at present peace negotiations have been buried, at least until the U.S. presidential elections next November, so he won’t hesitate to hook up with Hamas. He has no true ideological disputes with Hamas. In fact, in the wake of the recent agreements, there is hardly any difference between the policy platform of the Islamist organization and that of Fatah.
Still, despite the moving manifestations of unity, a few question marks continue to hover above the cigarette smoke in the lobby of the Cairo hotel. It’s doubtful if the elections will be held by May, in part because of the Palestinian demand to allow voting in East Jerusalem, a move Israel will almost certainly object to. In addition, Meshal and Abbas have decided that elections to the PLO’s Palestinian National Council will also be held in May, with the participation of Palestinians from around the world – an unrealistic objective, as things stand now.
In the meantime, Abbas and Meshal are discovering the difficulties inherent in changing the modes of operation of their security forces, which have become used to being in a state of combat with one another. Hamas’ security forces in Gaza are continuing to arrest Fatah personnel, while Fatah forces are doing the same to Hamas figures in the West Bank. Sometimes it even seems as though elements within the security forces on both sides are trying to derail their leaders’ decisions by taking steps of their own on the ground. Even that, however, is unlikely to prevent Abbas and Meshal from walking, arm in arm, into the sunset.
Leading article: Alarming escalation over Iran: Independent
FRIDAY 06 JANUARY 2012
The dispute over Iran’s nuclear programme has been around for so long that it seems part of the background music of international diplomacy. But over the past few weeks, Tehran and the West have moved perilously close to an endgame that could set the Middle East ablaze and have disastrous consequences for the already feeble world economy.
The latest chapter in the controversy was opened by November’s report from the International Atomic Energy Agency. It concluded that, contrary to Iran’s denials, the programme has a military purpose and it included expert assessments that the country could have a nuclear weapon within a year or two.
In response, the US and its allies have drastically tightened financial sanctions, while Europe is moving towards an oil embargo. Iran has retaliated by warning US warships to stay out of the Persian Gulf and by threatening to close the Straits of Hormuz, through which a quarter of the world’s oil shipments pass daily.
Meanwhile, Israel, the third protagonist in this escalating crisis, continues to insist that if no one else acts quickly to remove what it deems an existential threat, then it will.
Both sides have domestic reasons to act tough. In March, Iran holds parliamentary elections that are expected to be a showdown between hardliners and ultra-hardliners, while in America the White House race is well under way. Every Republican challenger (except Ron Paul) sounds ready to bomb Iran tomorrow, and will pounce on any sign of “weakness” in President Obama. And the essay in the latest edition of Foreign Affairs – house magazine of the US diplomatic and national security establishment – advocating a preventive strike against Iran’s nuclear sites is hardly comforting.
To be sure, a good deal of posturing is involved and the Obama administration is correct in arguing that the ever more shrill rhetoric from Tehran – not to mention the recent collapse of the Iranian currency – merely proves that the latest sanctions are really biting. But the situation is explosive and a small miscalculation by either side could prove fatal. Great wars in the past have been started by much less.
Royal Navy sends its mightiest ship to take on the Iranian show of force in the Gulf: Telegraph
The Royal Navy’s most formidable warship is being sent to the Gulf for its first mission as tensions rise in the strategically vital region, it can be disclosed.
By Thomas Harding, Defence Correspondent
7:00PM GMT 06 Jan 2012
Iran has threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, which served as the conduit for 17 millions barrels of oil every day last year.
Naval commanders believe the deployment of HMS Daring, a Type 45 destroyer, will send a significant message to the Iranians because of the firepower and world-beating technology carried by the warship.
Philip Hammond, the Defence Secretary, has publicly warned Iran that any blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would be “illegal and unsuccessful”.
The Daily Telegraph understands that HMS Daring has been fitted with new technology that will give it the ability to shoot down any missile in Iran’s armoury. The £1 billion destroyer, which will leave Portsmouth next Wednesday, also carries the world’s most sophisticated naval radar, capable of tracking multiple incoming threats from missiles to fighter jets.
Daring, with its crew of 190, will transit through the Suez Canal and enter the Gulf later this month to replace the Type 23 frigate currently on station.
Iran completed a 10-day naval exercise in the sensitive waters near the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, staging manouevres which included firing three anti-ship missiles understood to be the Chinese-made C-802.
Yesterday, Tehran said that another exercise would be held in the same area next month. Admiral Ali Fadavi, commander of the naval branch of the Revolutionary Guard, warned that this would be “different” from the most recent one.
Speaking earlier, Mr Hammond said that “our joint naval presence in the Arabian Gulf” was “key to keeping the Strait of Hormuz open for international trade”.
A Navy source has indicated that more British ships could be sent to the Gulf if required. The second Type 45, HMS Dauntless, will also be available to sail at short notice.
Daring’s special software upgrades will significantly increase the ability of its Sampson radar and Sea Viper missiles to destroy incoming missiles.
During an intensive “swarm attack”, the vessel could simultaneously track, engage and destroy more targets than five of it predecessor Type 42 destoyers.
The Sea Viper is also one of the world’s most agile missiles equipped with its own radar that can allow it to hit a target a hundred miles away.
Lord West, the former First Sea Lord, described Daring as a “world beater”, adding: “This warship has an unbelievably capable ability to track targets, spot the most dangerous and identify them for its missiles to take out. It’s highly, highly capable. I would like to see the Type 45s show their potential in the region.”
The 8,000 ton destroyer will carry 48 Sea Vipers that can also be used to shoot down fighters as well as sea skimming missiles. It will also carry a Lynx helicopter capable of carrying Sea Skua anti-ship missiles and is capable of embarking 60 special forces troops.
An MoD spokesman said: “While the newly operational Type 45 destroyer HMS Daring is more capable than earlier ships, her deployment East of Suez has been long planned, is entirely routine and replaces a frigate on station.”
Report: Britain dispatches advanced warship to Persian Gulf: Haaretz
Daily Telegraph reports that deployment of the HMS Daring is intended to send a message to Iran following its recent 10-day exercise in the Gulf and threats to close the Strait of Hormuz.
The Royal Navy is sending its most advanced warship to the Persian Gulf, in a deployment intended to send a message to Iran following its threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, the Daily Telegraph reported.
According to the report, the HMS Daring, a Type 45 destroyer, will depart Portsmouth next Wednesday and has been equipped with new technology that will enable it to intercept any Iranian missile. It also reportedly possesses the world’s most sophisticated naval radar.
Iranian naval vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, Jan. 3, 2012.
On Friday, Iran announced it will carry out more military exercises in the strait. Iran recently completed a 10-day drill in the strategic waterway.
Western countries have readied plans to use strategic oil stocks to replace almost all Gulf oil lost if Iran blocks the waterway, Reuters reported, citing industry sources and diplomats.
16 million barrels a day of crude pass through the strait daily.
Iranian officials have threatened in recent weeks to block the strait if new sanctions imposed by the United States and planned by the European Union, with the aim of discouraging Iran’s nuclear program, harm Iran’s oil exports.
Earlier this week, Iran said it would take action if the United States sailed an aircraft carrier through the strait.
The United States, whose Fifth Fleet based in the area is far more powerful than Iran’s naval forces, says it will ensure the international waters of the strait stay open.