July 19, 2012

U.S. security officials have discussed with their Israeli counterparts the possibility that Israel could strike Syria’s weapons facilities, the New York Times reported on Thursday, citing administration officials.

The report came after several top U.S. officials arrived in Israel for talks in recent weeks, including National Security Adviser Tom Dinilon and U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

On Wednesday, administration officials told the New York Times that Pentagon officials discussed whether or not Israel might move to destroy Syrian weapons facilities, as part of a larger Syria strategy.

According to the officials, Washington is not advocating such an attack, because of the inherent risks such a move would bring, and because it would, the report said give “an Assad an opportunity to rally support against Israeli interference.”

The Syria issue was included in the discussions between Donilon and Israeli officials, a White House official told the New York Times.

The report came hours after U.S. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said on Wednesday that the situation in Syria is “spinning out of control,” adding that President Bashar Assad’s government would be held responsible if it failed to safeguard its chemical weapons sites.

Syria’s defense minister and Assad’s brother-in-law were killed in a Damascus suicide bomb attack carried out by a bodyguard on Wednesday, the most serious blow to the president’s high command in the country’s 16-month-old rebellion.

“This is a situation that is rapidly spinning out of control,” Panetta said, adding that the international community needed to “bring maximum pressure on President Bashar Assad to do what’s right, to step down and allow for that peaceful transition.”

Panetta’s comments to a Pentagon news conference followed closed door talks with his British counterpart, Defense Secretary Philip Hammond. Hammond, speaking alongside Panetta, said he believed the situation in Syria was deteriorating and “becoming more and more unpredictable.”

The Damascus attack, Hammond said, showed the country’s growing instability as the violence gets closer to the heart of the government.

“I think what we’re seeing is an opposition which is emboldened, clearly an opposition which has access increasingly to weaponry, probably some fragmentation around the edges of the regime as well,” he told reporters.

Bulgaria blast: ‘Suicide bomber’ killed Israelis: BBC

The bombing of an Israeli tourist bus in eastern Bulgaria was probably carried out by a male suicide bomber with fake US documents, officials say.

At least eight people died and 34 were injured when the bus exploded at Burgas airport, by the Black Sea.

Israel has sent planes to Burgas with doctors and officials to bring back the dead and injured.

Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak said Lebanese Hezbollah was the direct perpetrator, under Iran’s auspices.

The BBC’s Jon Donnison, in Jerusalem, says the attack could be part of a covert but violent war between Israel and Iran, and there is a view among some analysts that this attack could be a response to a series of recent attacks on Iranian nuclear scientists.

“All the signs lead to Iran,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahusaid in a statement on Wednesday. “Israel will respond forcefully to Iranian terror.”

Mr Barak said the attack resembled several recent attempted attacks on Israeli targets in India, Thailand, Azerbaijan, Kenya and Cyprus.

But he said that he did not think there had been any specific prior information that the attack was imminent.

‘Distressed crowds’

The Israeli foreign ministry said the bus was carrying tourists from a charter flight that arrived from Israel.

The BBC’s Chris Morris, in Sofia, said a Bulgarian official has told the BBC that CCTV footage from the airport shows a Caucasian male hanging about for some time in the airport terminal building before the explosion took place. The man is seen leaving the terminal shortly before the blast happened just outside.

Investigators are working on the theory that this man is the bomber, the official said.

Israeli officials said passengers from a Tel Aviv-Burgas flight boarded the bus shortly after 17:00 local time (14:00 GMT) on Wednesday.

“I was on the bus and we had just sat down when after a few seconds we heard a really loud explosion,” Gal Malka told Israel’s army radio.

“The whole bus went up in flames,” she said, adding that the explosion took place near the front of the bus.

Bulgarian journalist Dobromir Dovkacharov, who arrived at the scene about 30 minutes after the blast, said: “I saw three buses completely burnt out – just the metal bars were left.

“There were crowds of people around, very distressed. One man said he saw decapitated heads. Others spoke of body parts flying through the air,” Mr Dovkacharov said.

Six tourists died, along with two others, one of them the Bulgarian bus driver.

The eighth fatality is now thought to be the suicide bomber, a man with a Michigan-issued US driver’s licence which reports said may have been fake.

Two of the wounded are in a serious condition and have been flown to the capital Sofia.

Israeli forensic teams who arrived during the night are helping to identify the bodies.

Wednesday’s blast came on the 18th anniversary of a deadly attack on a Jewish community centre in Argentina. Israel blamed Iran for that attack – a claim denied by Tehran.

US President Barack Obama described the bombing as a “barbaric terrorist attack”.

Bulgaria is a popular tourist destination for Israelis.

However, in January there were reports that Israel had asked Bulgaria to tighten security for Israeli tourists travelling by bus.

This followed a reported discovery of a suspicious package found on a bus with Israeli tourists travelling from Turkey to Bulgaria.

Netanyahu wants to turn the Israeli intelligence failure over Bulgaria into an excuse to strike Iran: Haaretz

ANALYSIS: The prime minister is trying to turn the failure to prevent the deadly attack into an accomplishment – two hours after the fact he was saying ‘all signs lead to Iran.’
By Amir Oren    Jul.19, 2012

The attack in Burgas is a failure for Israeli intelligence. This is not an accusation, but a fact of life that is part of the difficult reality of constantly fighting terrorism and the nations and organizations that support it.

That there are successes and failures are the nature of such a struggle; though there are more gains, the few failures come at a price.

Had the Israeli intelligence – aided by local services – not failed in exposing and foiling the plot, the Counter Terrorism Bureau (which is part of the prime minister’s office) would have issued a travel warning under the name “Bulgaria,” to be disseminated worldwide.

Barring such a warning, and with no heightened security in Burgas, it is safe to assume that those who planned and executed the attack managed to conceal their activities – intelligence gathering ahead of the operation, training a suicide bomber or an operative to plant the explosives, and smuggling weapons.

Israel is not alone in these kinds of failures. The intelligence and security apparatus surrounding Bashar Assad – who knows he’s being targeted – has been breached (even if it only his aides who have been hurt.)  A suspicious, professional and counter-intelligence savvy man such as Deputy Defense Minister Assef Shawkat, who was snared precisely the same way Syrians managed to assassinate Bashir Gemayel thirty years ago.

If the core of Assad’s struggling regime is breached – by one of it own loyalists – one can’t blame Israel for detecting a breach in its security net – what proved to be a lethal hole – in a foreign country.

And yet Benjamin Netanyahu, for his own reasons, is trying to turn the failure into an accomplishment. Two hours after the attack, he was saying that “all signs lead to Iran.”

Naturally, this is a well-founded suspicion; but from a prime minister – as opposed to a commentator – one expects a little more proof. And until he has proof, Netanyahu is talking about a worldwide pattern “in recent months” and the 18th anniversary of attack on Jewish community in Buenos Aires (which did not justify, in his eyes, a heightened alert concerning terror attacks). The conclusion: “This is an Iranian terror attack.” The aspiration that follows: “Israel will react forcefully to Iranian terror.”

Even if Netanyahu’s wish comes true, and evidence to Iran’s responsibility is found, it would not justify moving beyond the shadow war of what appears to be mutual terror attacks and onto a big war, the one that according to Ehud Barak would only take the lives of 500 Israelis – all in all, Burgas times 70.

Netanyahu and Barak are eager to deploy IDF forces on an attack mission targeting nuclear facilities in Iran. They lack a convincing excuse, since the Iranians have not yet decided whether to manufacture nuclear weapons, and U.S. President Barack Obama is busy with other things until November – issues that could only be sidetracked by the sounds of explosions in the Persian Gulf.

Mitt Romney, who Netanyahu’s benefactor Sheldon Edelson wishes to usher into the White House, looks like he’s going to lose. An Israeli-Iranian war, one that would pose significant economic threats – is the last hope harbored by Obama’s rivals.

Kadima party leader Shaul Mofaz and his contingent, recently exiled from the coalition, are itching to redeem themselves after being exposed as vulnerbale, by scratching away at Netanyahu’s and Barak’s steadfast political support.

The impending Knesset recess, however, leading up to the elections which will take place in early 2013, is likely to instill Barak and Netanyahu with renewed strength.

There will be much temptation to create a serious of incitements and counters, and during the third phase, after an Iranian retaliation for an Israeli retaliation, the jets will take off for the east.

If it happens quickly, Netanyahu and Barak will be spared having to deal with two bothersome events set for August, the second evacuation of some thirty people from Migron, and the first IDF call up for ultra-Orthodox conscripts.

Heightened American activities near the Persian Gulf, and military policy, like sending National Security Advisor Thomas Donilon and General James Mattis of “USCENTCOM” or central command, for talks with senior officials in Saudi Arabia and other nations in the region, show that Obama is not subscribing to the doctrine of keeping quiet until the elections.

Talks that took place on Wednesday night between Barak and his American counterpart Leon Panetta, who is scheduled to visit Israel and the Middle East, did not necessarily calm the government.

Further talks are expected between Obama himself, or one of his agents, Vice President Joe Biden, or Secretary of State Hilary Clinton, and Netanyahu.

Officially, talks of condolences over Burgas. In reality, a warning about Iran.

As in Lebanon in 1982, Iran is a war looking for an excuse. The “Belli” is ready; It only needs the “Causus.” Netanyahu and Barak must not be allowed to find them in Burgas.