EDITOR: Egypt’s revolution is fighting back!
The last week has been both devastating and exhilarating for all of us who are closely following the developments in Egypt. As Netanyahu writes off the Arab uprising with words that only the most arrogant Zionist politician can utter, the masses of protesters in Egypt, in Cairo and beyond, are doing the impossible, again! Despite mass killings and woundings, the Egyptians have yet again joined those in Syria, Yemen, Bahrain and Jordan, facing armed troops and brutal police forces, fighting for freedom and democracy with amazing bravery, with civil inventiveness, with long terms goals, with optimism of action.
While it is less than certain that they goals will be reached soon and easily, one is impressed by the great spirit of freedom which engages the Arab masses elsewhere, after western and Zionist pundits have written them off time and again, as somehow unable to either wish or enact democracy. For Netanyahu, the SCAF rule is ideal, as was Muabark’s rule before – he can get exactly what he needs from such rulers. His glee over the ‘defeat’ of the revolutions in the Arab countries is wishful thinking, is whistling in dark. Together with the USA and other western powers, he would do all he can to make this wish a reality. I am persuaded he shall fail, and history shall prove that this thesis of Zionism was as rancid and vile as the rest of its thinking and actions. Those who always had power, who have always acted brutally against the powerless, cannot ever understand the power of millions of the oppressed, and are forever surprised when it wins.
I have decided today to devote the whole apace to pieces about the event in Egypt, as they have a direct effect on the future of life on the whole region, and especially on Palestine.
Ahdaf Soueif in Cairo: ‘By early evening it was clear that this was Revolution II’: Guardian
The novelist writes from Tahrir Square where the advice is to wear a gas mask and write your name on your arm
Ahdaf Soueif
“Eat a good breakfast. Take a rucksack with a gas mask and swimming goggles. Write your name on your arm. Write your details into a message on your mobile. And go to the Square.” The tweet appeared after three of the (at least) 38 people killed in the streets of Egypt over the last three days proved impossible to identify. It was picked up by the well-respected Egyptian daily al-Shorouk and published to #Tahrirsupplies – the hashtag that collates what you can bring in to the square if you want to help.
Egypt is much more than Tahrir Square. People across the country are demanding the abdication of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (Scaf). On Tuesday night as the news cameras concentrated on Tahrir, the army and police were attacking citizens in other places: Alexandria, Assiut, Aswan, Damietta, Ismailia, Luxor, Mahalla, Mansoura, Sohag and Suez.
And yet, of course, in this age of spectacle it was the images of Tahrir that were most shocking. We could hardly believe that Scaf would allow that image which had become such an icon across the world – Tahrir Square teeming with citizens, decorated with flags – to reappear clouded with teargas. But they did.
Throughout the day on Tuesday thousands poured into the square. By early evening it was clear that this was Revolution II. In the small hours of Sunday the little field hospital in the small mosque of Ibad al-Rahman had been pleading for a stethoscope, a blood pressure gauge, betadine, cotton wool.
By Tuesday afternoon there were five field hospitals around Tahrir stockpiled with equipment and medicines – all donated by people coming in. Two, Omar Makram Mosque and Qasr el-Doubara Church, cross-reference specialisations. On a wall between them someone has written: “We are the Square: A Church, a Mosque and a Parliament.”
The revolution is using what it learned in January and February and adding to it. Signposts, information, directions. Young men on motorbikes ferry the injured from the front lines to the field hospitals. The organisation is breathtaking. And the creativity: when Malek Mostafa – a popular, newly married young activist had his eye shot out by the army, one of the great black lions on Qasr el-Nil bridge suddenly sported an eye patch.
The revolution is now aware how dear it is. Everybody talks about its cost. On Tuesday 200 young doctors walked into the square together in their white coats and distributed themselves among the hospitals – in a few hours one of them, Dr Rania Fouad, had been killed. The people notched it up: the revolution had just become dearer – more impossible to abandon.
On Tuesday night Field-Marshal Hussein Tantawi made a speech reminiscent of Hosni Mubarak in its detachment and tardiness, its formal emptiness, its moral vacuity. And then the teargas started in earnest. People stood their ground because they knew the army wanted to claim that the speech had satisfied people so they’d left.
Events are so many and so fast that it’s hard to claim to “know” anything from the midst of them. Yesterday morning Tahrir Square was clean and tidy, settling in for another day of the sit-in; the mood utterly determined.
Just down Tahrir Street, however, I could see the clouds of white teargas. The army and police are using at least two kinds of gas. One hangs around in a dirty white cloud. Another is transparent; you only know it’s there because your skin starts to burn and your eyes and all the insides of your head and your chest. Three people so far have choked to death. In a flat on the 10th floor above Tahrir we had to wear gas-masks, the smell was so strong. I’ve seen a boy convulse and shake, his eyes turn upwards in his head. In the square, a young woman slipped off her gas-mask to say “tell them no one speaks for the shabab, the young people, and we’re not leaving till the army council leave”.
At 3pm yesterday a group of university sheikhs from al-Azhar brokered a truce and the army stepped between the young people surrounding the ministry of the interior and the police. How real is this? What does it mean? How long will it last? The minister of the interior, in any case, has not been near his office for three days and operations are run by General Hamdy Badeen, who commands the military police. So if police and army are under one commander, how is it that two hours later, at 5pm, a gas canister suddenly crashes out from behind the lines of protecting army and the attacks on the protesters start once again?
Here are things we know: the demand of the protesters is for Scaf to step down from the presidency of Egypt and hand over all powers (except defence) to a civilian government or presidential council. The people will back any one of, or combination of, three of the potential candidates for the presidency; the ones who have refused to meet with Scaf over the last two days.
Every time the military gas bomb a street or fire another shot the people become more determined to see the back of them. In Revolution I the ministry of the interior was the declared enemy of the people. Over nine months Scaf have protected it from any attempts to reform, restructure or investigate it. Since July they have been working with it. This is one of the reasons why Scaf must relinquish power – because they have allied themselves completely with the enemies of the people.
The protesters are unarmed. When the army and police attack them they fight back bravely, using stones from the street, lobbing back gas canisters, keeping up a constant chanting and a constant drumming on the metal lamp-posts and street-signs, occasionally shooting fireworks. The square is well aware of the contrast between their drumming and fireworks and the deadly thud of the sniper and teargas canister.
The leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood has declared against the protests. This has been a very bad move. They’re perceived to have sided with Scaf against the people. They’ve caused a split within their own ranks: some members of the Brotherhood have disobeyed orders and obeyed their consciences and joined the protests. But the Brotherhood can no longer claim that the numbers in the streets are due to the Islamists – the numbers we’ve been seeing in the streets of Egypt since Saturday night are mostly without the Brotherhood.
We’re saying these are “Ayyam el-farz” – the days of sorting, if you like. The situation is very intense. On Wednesday night, at that flashpoint where a truce was brokered at 3pm and broken at 5pm, the army and police shot protesters at sunset prayers. The field hospitals in Qasr el-Doubara Church and Omar Makram Mosque are calling for neurologists; the motorbikes have brought in 50 cases in the last 10 minutes.
© Ahdaf Soueif 2011
EDITOR: For a fascinating Al Jazeera English report on the Egyptian electronic media and its reporting of events, go to:
Al Jazeera English report
Guide to gas sprays
CS or tear gas
The active ingredient is a white powder, 2-chlorobenzylidene malononitrile, which causes streams of tears, a burning sensation in the eyes, the nose and throat, and can trigger chest tightness and vomiting. CS gas was first used here on rioters in Toxteth in 1981, and since 1995 police officers carry a CS spray; it is widely used by US police.
CN gas
This spray’s active chemical, phenacyl chloride, is weaker than CS but longer lasting and more toxic: a potent eye, nose and throat irritant which can cause burns, short breath, and a burning sensation in the chest. CN gas is sold under restrictions in some US states. Police forces increasingly favour pepper spray (oleoresin capsicum) over CN, because it works faster and is less toxic. In the UK, police are not authorised to use CN gas.
CR gas
Of the three riot control agents, this is the most potent and long-lasting. It has dibenzoxazephine, which causes intense irritation of eyes, skin, throat and lungs. Breathing it in can cause a fluid build-up in the lungs that, in an enclosed space, may lead to death by asphyxiation. CR was used against anti-apartheid protests in South Africa. It is authorised for use by UK armed forces when otherwise soldiers would resort to guns. UK police are not authorised to use CR. The US does not use it because the spray is carcinogenic.
Tahrir protesters compare Tantawi to Mubarak, insist on his departure: Ahram online
Demonstrators describe field-marshal’s Tuesday speech as Mubarak-like; vow to continue their ongoing sit-in until SCAF departs
Sarah Raslan, Thursday 24 Nov 2011
Standing outside the tent where he spends his nights in Tahrir Square, the young activist looked around him, carefully scanning the place that had served as his home for the past week.
Signs reading “Down with the military,” listing protesters’ demands and spelling out the area’s laws, hang on poles and tents around him.
“We came with only one main demand,” said Mahmoud Yousef. “And that was for a national salvation government to be formed with full authority to manage the transitional period and oversee elections.”
Yousef came to demonstrate in Tahrir on Friday and returned to the square Saturday afternoon after learning of clashes between protesters and security forces.
When asked about Field-Marshal Hussein Tantawi’s Tuesday evening speech – the first official statement from the head of the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) since clashes began on Saturday – the young man smirked.
“It was identical to Mubarak’s speech,” he said, “which could mean he’s starting to bend just like Mubarak did.”
“Tantawi simply removed the line where Mubarak announces he’s the president and replaced it with his military title,” he added.
Yousef, along with about 20 fellow demonstrators, vowed to stay in the square until the SCAF stepped down.
Yousef said he supported the proposed formation of a presidential council to include would-be presidential contenders Mohamed ElBaradei, Hamdeen Sabbahi, Abdel Moneim Abou El-Fotouh and Hazem Salah Abou-Ismail, along with a judge.
“I personally don’t support Hazem Abou-Ismail, but wouldn’t object to him being part of the presidential council,” he said. “The council would represent all Egypt’s political factions, and that’s the first step towards democracy.”
He stopped a young boy who was walking by – one of the street children who help activists with daily chores in exchange for food and shelter, as they did during the 18-day January uprising – and asked him if he had got the juice he was drinking from the army.
“After attacking us, the army is now throwing packaged cakes, candy and juice boxes at us,” Yousef said. “But we don’t want their charity. Demonstrators threw their juice boxes back at them.”
A nearby demonstrator pointed out that Salafist presidential hopeful Hazem Abou Ismail had visited the square on Wednesday night to distribute sandwiches and juice to the protesters. She said that the Islamists appeared divided about the ongoing demonstration, with some calling on Tahrir Square protesters to give the SCAF a “second chance” and others supporting the sit-in.
Several sheikhs carrying signs condemning the recent bloodshed paraded through the square to the entrance of the adjacent Mohamed Mahmoud Street, the scene of continuous bloody skirmishes in recent days.
Nasr Mohamed El-Ashry, a middle-aged Azhar sheikh, said he was going to the interior ministry to demand an end to the bloodshed and the use of teargas against unarmed protesters.
“Yesterday they listened to us and there was a truce,” El-Ashry said. “I don’t know why clashes started up again at night, but this must stop.”
The sheikh went on to say that he planned to stay in the square until the ruling military junta handed executive power over to a civilian government.
“The army’s job is to protect Egypt from foreign enemies. The armed forces can only come to the square if the people request their presence – but not to attack the people they should be protecting,” he said.
The sheikh expressed support for protesters’ demands, urging all Egyptians to join their cause.
In an attempt to curb clashes on Mohamed Mahmoud Street, which leads to the interior ministry building, the military closed off the street with barbed wire on Wednesday to prevent both security forces and protesters from entry.
According to the latest reports, this week’s violence has left at least 35 dead and over 1,000 injured.
Abdelrahman Gamal, coordinator of the Tahrir Square field hospital, said no injured protesters had been brought to the hospital for treatment on Thursday.
A concrete barrier was erected on Thursday, further barricading the street and providing some protection for the interior ministry.
Mohamed Mahmoud Street saw a fragile truce from Thursday morning until 3:30pm, when several demonstrators climbed over the concrete blockades in an attempt to cross over to the other side. Tahrir doctors convinced demonstrators to stay on their side of the cordon, however, thus maintaining the shaky ceasefire.
On Thursday, the SCAF issued Statement 86 on its Facebook page, asking protesters not to remove the barriers so as to safeguard the lives of Egyptians on both sides.
Egypt elections and Tahrir protests: what does the future hold?: Guardian
Egyptians who have helped chart the revolution online tell us what the country’s post-Mubarak elections mean to them. Our correspondent Jack Shenker joined the thread to discuss the situation with them
Egyptian women wave flags during a rally in Cairo’s Tahrir Square. Photograph: Amr Nabil/AP
Protests have once more rocked Egypt with demonstrators re-entering Tahrir Square, just before the country is expected to take to the polls to elect a parliament after 30 years of dictatorial rule by Hosni Mubarak.
We asked a group of Egyptians who have been tweeting, blogging and commenting on the Guardian site throughout the revolution for their take on the country’s future.
• Do you think the ‘revolution’ has succeeded?
• Who do you think will win the election?
• Is Egypt of today different from this time last year?
• Can elections still take place in the current climate?
Here’s what they told us sent via email and we’re hoping they’ll join the thread below to discuss what’s happening in Egypt and plans for the country’s elections.
Our correspondent in Cairo Jack Shenker joined the thread below to discuss the elections and how he sees the country’s politics emerging from the latest protests.
Hatem Rushdy, 43, business owner and father of three
Hatem describes himself as a “proud revolutionary”. He is editor of 18 Days in Tahrir: Stories from the Egyptian Revolution.
Calling the revolution a success or failure is like deciding the result of a football match 45 minutes into the game. The revolution is at best halfway through. The seven-eight month hiatus was a result of the misguided perception that removing Mubarak from the presidency was the ultimate objective. The past months have proven that Mubarak is not the regime, rather just the ugly tip of a hideous iceberg. This is why we are back in Tahrir.
Scaf [Supreme Council of the Armed Forces] has loyally copied Mubarak’s tactics of evasion, crisis creation, non-responsiveness, aggression and divisiveness in order to delay meeting just about every single demand made by the revolution. Mubarak’s trial is moving at a snail’s pace while political activists tried in military courts receive summary trials and speedy sentences. Handing over of power (promised to happen in six months) has not happened, rather Selmy’s recent proposal for a supra-constitutional document, gives the army powers Mubarak himself did not enjoy. One could go on.
I believe presidential and parliamentary elections must be held on time with perhaps a minor (days not weeks) adjustment for parliamentary elections. Winners are likely to include the Muslim Brotherhood (30-40%), ex-NDP members under various banners (15-20%), other Islamists, liberals and independents the rest equally or thereabouts.
In terms of presidential candidates, the two frontrunners seem to be Dr ElBaradei and one of the two Islamic candidates Salah Abu Ismail and Abdul Moneim Aboul Fotouh. If Baradei were to become president and one of the other two his VP, it may be a good thing. It would give the west a familiar face to deal with and Egypt a capable technocrat, while responding to the clearly voiced demand for a conservative force at or near the top.
hz, commenter on Guardian live blogs of Egypt protests in February
As an Egyptian living aboard I was heart and soul with the revolution. While all the demands have not been achieved, I believe that the entrenched barrier of fear has definitely been broken. As a result, average Egyptians can dare to take charge of their destiny, can plan and hope and elect their own representation to govern the country, and can now consider they count as human beings. The situation on the ground is still not enabling the fruition of these dreams, but the hope and the fortitude is now apparent. This is a huge achievement. This is what is different in Egypt today.
Having been oppressed by corrupt regimes for generations, we now dare to speak out and we do not lack hopes or dreams for a better Egypt, but we still need the training, the time and the discipline. We are like a toddler who has taken his first steps and immediately aspires to win the marathon. It is achievable, but with time and training, and most importantly with conviction.
I hope that a liberal majority will win the parliamentary elections. However, I am mindful that many of the “liberal” group parties are new and may not be able to take the majority from the more seasoned parties already on the ground. I believe that the new parliament will be a mix of all groups with no definite majority going to one group.
Sarah Gheita, computer science lecturer and mother of two
In my opinion the revolution didn’t succeed yet. I expect elections result to be: ikhwan (25-30%) , salaf parties (10-15%), old and new parties (20%), feloul of the old regime (25%) and revolutionaries (15%). I hope only the revolutionary liberal parties and coalitions win, but to be realistic this will not happen.
Egypt today is not better politically than Egypt this time last year, the feelings of Egyptians are different though. People expect more, hope for more. They are willing to fight more for their rights. Yes, some are more desperate now than after the revolution, but in general Egyptians are more aware of their rights, and the proof all the strikes. I don’t think the elections can take place in the current climate, I hope it takes place though. I hope Scaf steps down and gives power to presidential council formed of Egypt’s presidential candidates.
Ahmad Taha, 37, network and security services manager in Cairo
The parliamentary elections might be a good step to claim democracy from the military rulers, since there will be a group of people speaking on behalf of all of the Egyptians. This “group” has the ability to mobilise on the ground and not just the internet in order to provide real services for the people. Currently I think both the Muslim Brotherhood (El-Horeya Wel-Adala party) and Salafis (El-Noor party) have these characteristics in common. I don’t hope for a certain party but may the best for the country win. Whoever wins will be under a close audit from the people, who have changed and will not allow the previous farce to repeat itself. Currently people are willing to secure the elections’ committees by themselves insisting that the elections are held on time.
I feel Egypt today is different than this time last year as currently I see Egyptians have hope in their future so that they are ready to sacrifice their lives for a better future for their country. I see hope and determination within people’s eyes, two words that have, for a long time, been forgotten.
YShawkat, commenter on Guardian live blogs at the start of the Egyptian demonstrations
The revolution hasn’t really completed its course so I can’t really say if it has succeeded in general. On a more focused view, I believe it has succeeded in many small ways that may be greater than the sum of their parts: witness the development of independent unions as an alternative to state-sponsored ones, the development of local popular committees much as an alternative to local councils, changes in university leadership that was inconceivable a year ago. They count for a lot, but will take time to be felt.
If the elections go ahead, I think Islam-based parties will get most of the rural vote but a will ace strong competition in the cities. I’m not very fond of the running parties as there aren’t any strong religiously centrist social parties.
Sallie Pisch, American journalist working in Cairo
Sallie came to Cairo in 2008 and has covered Egyptian politics since March 2010. She now works as the managing director of Youm7 English Edition.
Egypt is less than a week away from its first post-Mubarak vote. One of the most striking differences between now and this time last year, when Egypt was also preparing for elections, is often overlooked. Whether they plan to vote or think the elections are pointless, every Egyptian knows there are elections. Whatever they think of the political situation, Egyptians are aware of what’s happening.
That wasn’t the case last year.
Yet beyond the political change is something even more important: a shift in the spirit of Egyptians. Some argue the shift began a decade ago, but it was realised during Egypt’s 18-day uprising. When demonstrators pushed the police out of the streets of Cairo on 28 January, two important things happened: first, the wall of fear that had silenced Egyptians for decades was finally shattered; second, for the first time in their lives young Egyptians felt like their streets were their own, like their country belonged to them.
This is the real revolution.
Whether parliamentary elections usher in liberals or Islamists or a mix of both – or even if elections are delayed – Egypt cannot return to what it was before the January 25 Revolution. One way or another, it is on the path to change.
Journalist Mona El-Tahawy beaten and sexually assaulted by CSF: Ahram online
Renowned Egyptian American journalist recounts on Twitter her terrible experience in state detention
Zeinab El-Gundy, Thursday 24 Nov 2011
Renowned Egyptian American columnist Mona El-Tahawy says she was subjected to physical and sexual assault at the hands of the Central Security Forces (CSF) after being arrested at Mohamed Mahmoud Street on Wednesday night. El-Tahawy is a New York-based columnist for Canada’s Toronto Star, Israel’s The Jerusalem Report and Denmark’s Politiken.
El-Tahawy’s arrest was first known Wednesday night when she sent a tweet saying that she was beaten and detained. After several hours of silence, El-Tahawy tweeted again “I am free” and then began to speak of her terrible experience.
After arrest, El-Tahawy was moved to the Ministry of Interior’s where she waited for three hours before being interrogated by military intelligence officers while she was blindfolded. It was at this time that El-Tahawy was also sexually assaulted: “5 or 6 surrounded me, groped and prodded my breasts, grabbed my genital area and I lost count how many hands tried to get into my trousers.”
Mona said that she had to answer questions at first because she had no passport with her, but later refused to cooperate with the military intelligence as a civilian.
The military intelligence apologised for what CSF forces did to El-Tahawy, even recording her statement about the assault and taking photographs of her bruises before releasing her.
El-Tahawy shared a photo of her swollen hand and said that she was going to hospital for a checkup. According to x-rays, both her left arm and right hand are broken. El-Tahawy attacked the CSF on her Twitter account, calling them “bastards” and promising to write an article about her terrifying experience.
The El-Tahawy incident is not the first involving a journalist during the latest clashes in Tahrir Square. Many Egyptian and foreign journalists reported attacks by the security forces. Two reporters lost an eye, including Al-Masry Al-Youm photojournalist Ahmed Abdel Fatah.
Two days ago, Al-Akhbar Daily newspaper’s correspondent Sarhan Sanara in Alexandria was arrested by security forces during his coverage for clashes in front of the Alexandria security directorate and was badly tortured for hours there before being released.
The Journalists’ Syndicate issued a strong-worded a couple of days ago condemning the attacks on journalists and accusing the Ministry of Interior of targeting the media. The syndicate threatened to sue the ministry in case of any further attacks on journalists.
Egypt protesters call for postponement of elections: Guardian
Demonstrators continue to call for military rulers to step down as casualties mount following police advance on Tahrir Square
Martin Chulov and Jack Shenker in Cairo
Egyptian protesters want elections scheduled for Monday to be postponed and a council of elders to replace the military rulers who on Wednesday again sent in security forces to quell demonstrating crowds.
The current protests are seen as a second – and decisive – phase of the January revolution that led to the overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak.
In the symbolic heart of the revolution, Tahrir Square, demonstrators were chanting the same slogans used 11 months ago, but this time directing them at the interim military ruler, Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi. “If the wheels of democracy move on Egypt and this problem is still here, then democracy will have failed,” said Ikramy Esayed. “Next Monday is very important for Egypt, but not because [the poll] should be held, but because we should acknowledge that this is not the time.”
A second man, Nashad Bishara, agreed. “It is unsuitable now to hold elections,” he said. “For those who love Egypt stability must be established first. The truth is the army doesn’t want elections.”
Field hospitals set up around the square were overrun with casualties after riot police closed in on tens of thousands of people inside the square. Doctors said there appeared to have been more casualties over the past five days than during most of January, when several thousand people were injured.
Injuries were mostly from gas being fired by troops, who briefly negotiated a truce with demonstrators before violence re-erupted. The Guardian saw two women convulsing violently in a makeshift clinic set up in a church courtyard after inhaling gas. Doctors are reporting large numbers of patients who have reacted severely to the gas being fired. “I have not seen a reaction like this,” said one doctor in a triage centre inside a church on a street near Tahrir Square. “We are sending a lot of people to hospital. We can’t just treat them here.”
In one of the field hospitals a doctor was killed, according to her colleagues and websites. Dr Rania Fouad is believed to have died after inhaling gas.
After offering on Tuesday to hold a referendum on the transition of power to civilian rule and maintaining that a political process was on track, the country’s military rulers remained silent on Wednesday.
Dissatisfaction with the slow pace of change continued to mount, along with suspicion that Tantawi’s apparent concessions are a bid to buy time or avoid the transition of power.
Britain condemned the violence in Egypt, but the foreign secretary, William Hague, said he recognised Tantawi’s commitments. Hague urged Egypt to hold fair, credible and transparent elections but did not press for a timeframe – a shift from the government’s stance of earler this year when it pushed for a September ballot.
Protest numbers in Tahrir Square have continued to build since Saturday and by mid-evening on Wednesday night a sea of people matched the scenes of January. “The people demand the end of the field marshal,” said one large banner.
Away from the square the streets were tense, with some residents accusing demonstrators of inflaming the situation by demanding immediate reforms.
“We are adrift in a boat without a captain and with everyone fighting for control of the wheel,” said Captain Abdul Aziz inside a burned-out police station in the city’s west. “It is dangerous and unpredictable and people should be careful.”
In a nearby room hundreds of vests due to be handed out to election monitors on Monday sat in storage. Few in the police station thought the vests would be used.
Egypt has halted the drive to derail the Arab revolution: Guardian
The uprisings across the Arab world have been crushed, hijacked and poisoned. But Egyptians have taken back control
Seumas Milne
Until the last few days pessimism about the Arab revolution had become the norm. After the euphoria of Tunisia and Egypt, the “Arab spring” had become bleak autumn. Savage repression, foreign intervention, civil war, counter-revolution and the return of the old guard had become the order of the day. To some there had been no revolution at all – and only strategically marginal Tunisia would be allowed to undergo a genuine democratic transformation.
But now the revolutionary wave has broken again in Egypt, as hundreds of thousands have defied lethal violence to reclaim authority from a military regime that had no intention of letting it go. After throwing Hosni Mubarak overboard and conceding a tightly managed electoral and constitional process, the generals, who control vast commercial interests, had clamped down on the popular movement, jailing and torturing thousands, attacking demonstrations and provoking sectarian conflict.
But it was their attempt to grab permanent constitutional power that reignited the uprising and brought them into conflict with the powerful Muslim Brotherhood. Now the army junta has once again been forced to make serious concessions and may yet be brought down if it can be prevented from isolating the mass of protesters from the wider population.
Where the US and its allies – still determined to maintain Egypt as a docile asset – stand on all this can be judged from their reactions to the killing of at least 38 demonstrators and injury of more than 1,500 others. “Authority has to be restored”, the Foreign Office minister Alistair Burt explained, while the White House has repeatedly called for restraint “on all sides” – just as it did in January and February, when Mubarak’s forces killed 850 in three weeks.
Since the day the Egyptian dictator was ousted there has been a determined drive by the western powers, their Gulf allies and the old regimes to buy off, crush or hijack the Arab uprisings. In Tunisia and Egypt, US and Saudi money has poured in to bolster allies. The Obama administration allocated $120m for “promoting democracy” in both countries, while Jordan – the west’s favourite, if shaky, Arab police state – is now the second largest per capita recipient of US aid after Israel.
The second approach has been to back the crushing of protests by force. In March the US gave Saudi Arabia and the UAE the green light to invade Bahrain, home to the US 5th Fleet, and help suppress the democratic movement – reportedly in exchange for Arab League support for western intervention in Libya. Yesterday the regime’s own sponsored report into the crackdown detailed the kind of killings, torture and mass detention that followed.
The third tactic has been for the west and its autocratic Arab allies to put themselves at the head of uprisings – which is what happened in Libya, where Nato’s military intervention was made possible by Qatar and other authoritarian Gulf states. The result was the overthrow of the Gaddafi regime, an estimated 30,000 dead and a new order founded on ethnic cleansing, torture and detention without trial. But from Nato’s perspective, the newly formed Tripoli administration at least seems firmly pro-western.
It’s this return of former colonial powers to the Arab world to reclaim oil concessions in Libya, following the occupation of Iraq, that has led Gamal Abdel Nasser’s former confidant Mohamed Heikal to talk recently of the threat of an effective new “Sykes-Picot agreement” – the carve-up between Britain and France after the first world war – and a redivision of spoils in the region.
And, as the months have passed, another weapon, religious sectarianism, has been deployed to head off or divert the challenge of the Arab awakening. Linked to hostility to the influence of Shia Iran, it was crucial to the Gulf mobilisation to suppress the revolt in majority-Shia Bahrain. And fuelled by the post-invasion conflict in Iraq, it has been the Saudi government’s main propaganda tool to isolate protests in its predominantly Shia oil-rich eastern province.
But it is also central to the increasingly dangerous conflict in Syria. And it helps explain the very different response to the Assad regime’s bloody repression, which has led to about 3,500 deaths since March, and that in US and Saudi-backed Yemen, where 1,500 were estimated to have been killed even two months ago. While the Yemeni president was yesterday in Riyadh signing a Gulf-sponsored deal to hand over to his deputy with immunity, Syria is under sanctions, has been suspended from the Arab League and faces the threat of foreign military intervention.
The difference isn’t mainly about the level of violence or Assad’s continuing resistance to implementing his own pledges of elections and reform. It’s that his Alawite-based regime is allied with Iran and the Lebanese Shia Hezbollah movement – against the US, Israel and its Arab clients.
Now what began as a peaceful protest movement in Syria is morphing into a fully fledged armed insurrection and a vicious sectarian conflict on the brink of civil war. With neither side able to prevail, western-backed opposition leaders are increasingly calling for foreign intervention and a Libyan-style no-fly zone. And even though Nato states have ruled it out in the absence of UN backing, that could change if the conflict tipped over into large-scale fighting and refugee crises. One way to avoid such a regional disaster would be a negotiated political settlement in Syria underpinned by Turkey and Iran – though it may be that Turkey’s denunciations of the Assad government have gone beyond the point where such agreement is viable.
What’s clear is that the upheavals across the Arab world are intimately connected, and that sectarianism and foreign intervention are enemies of its fledgling revolution. A crucial factor in the persistence of authoritarian regimes has been their support by western powers determined to maintain strategic control. And any genuinely democratic Middle East will inevitably be more independent.
That’s why the reignition of the revolution in Egypt, the pivot of the Arab world, has the potential not only to accelerate the democratisation of the country itself but change the dynamic across the region – and strike a blow against the hydra-headed attempts to stifle its renaissance.
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